THE FORECASTING METHOD

In the business world predict an event commonly called forecasting. Forecasting itself is a method for managing and controlling production in business. In addition, this method can also be used in assessing the effect of a policy in a company that is determined on the company's future. Generally, the marketing department is the part that most often does forecasting. Based on forecasting carried out by the marketing department, it can determine the number of products to be produced. That way the company can finally reduce expenses by producing the amount of production in accordance with customer demand. Broadly speaking, forecasting is divided into two types, namely qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting methods. Quantitative forecasting method involves mathematical calculations while for quality forecasting in the form of an analytical descriptive description.

Quantitative Forecasting Method

There are several quantitative forecasting methods used, namely:

1. Time Series

The time series method is a forecasting method that connects the relationship between the dependent variable (the variable sought) with the independent variable or the variable that affects it then is related to time, weekly, month or year. So in the time series method, the variable sought is time. To use

2. Method of Kasuality (Cause and Effect)

This method is based on the relationship between the estimated variables with other variables that affect it. However, the variable used is not in the form of time. To do forecasting with this method can use the regression method.

Then for qualitative forecasting methods there are several methods used, namely:

1. Market Survey

The method through market survey is done by seeking the opinions of consumers who influence the purchase plan during the survey period. Surveys can be conducted in various ways such as by distributing questionnaires, direct interviews or telephone so that the data obtained is primary data.

2. Jury and Executive Opinion

This method is to solicit opinions from a small group consisting of marketing managers, production managers, engineering managers, financial managers and logistics managers. Then based on the opinion results of the group the results will be combined into a statistical model.

3. Delphi Method

This method is almost similar to the market survey method, but to do this method what needs to be done is to spread the questionnaire. The results of the questionnaire will then be given to professionals for forecasting.

Some of the methods above are methods that can be used when doing forecasting. When you want the company to progress, it is very important for you to do forecasting, both forecasting is used to plan and monitor your business.

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